PS5 Will Release Early 2019 (Opinion)

[JEMC]

gcwy said:

JEMC said:

I agree that hardware is the main problem for an early 2019 launch, but in my oponion it's more because of the GPU part rather than the CPU.

Both Scorpio and PS4Pro feature a Polaris 10 (RX 480/580) part, with some Vega enhancements, and that's the best AMD has on offer right now in the mainstream segment, which is the one Sony would look for unless they want to launch a more expensive PS5. There are rumors that AMD may have Vega 11 to replace Polaris 10, but given how Vega 56 performs, the jump in performance from such part would be very small if at all.

Given that Vega 20 will only be a refresh on a smaller node, and will launch late next year, we'll have to wait for Navi to see real improvements and something worth a new gen of consoles.

It's true that AMD has been stagnating on the GPU side. But in terms of console GPU performance, I think we will see at least GTX 1080 (12TFLOPS in GCN) levels of performance, better if they wait for newer architecture. Of course the high GPU prices will prevent them from getting that level of performance in APUs this early. But I do think that's a decent enough jump, enough to follow the 4K standard set by these mid-gen refreshes (I do expect the majority of PS5 games to be native 4K)  and still have enough headroom to push visuals over current gen graphics, especially considering the jump in CPU performance we'll get will be much larger than PS360 to PS4One was. That opens up new opportunities in game design and possibly allow for more 60fps games.

The only AMD GPU capable of that kind of performance is Vega 64, and uses 295W. Even next year when the refresh comes using the better 12nm process, it will still be a +200W part, impossible to use on a console.

We'll have to wait for Navi to get something close to that level of performance with a power consumption that makes it compatible with a console setup. And since Navi won't apper until 2019 at the earliest, I have my doubts that Sony would be able to launch a PS5 with that GPU in early 2019.

And by the way, I'm not convinced that the jump from the current PS4 to an hypothetical PS5 with the power of a GTX 1080 will be enough, much less compared to a PS4Pro.

Also, retail GPU prices don't matter. They are high nowadays because miners buy the cards for Etherium or whatever they farm, but we're talking about chips (APU chips to be more precise), not cards, so the only cost is the one GloFo/Samsung or TSMC will ask AMD, who will later sell them to Sony, for manufacturing them.