| Cerebralbore101 said: |
1. Attach rates are not a good thing to use in some arguments. They are good some times, other times misleading.
2. It's not an unintended strawman though. See, THIS is my problem with your replies. You first said that a majority of your argument wasn't about attach rates, which I proved wrong by literally reposting what you said. And now you're saying i'm not accurately describing your point ... but you don't show any evidence of that.
"CoD will crush Odyssey in every sales catagory. It will have more pre-orders, more sales the first week, and more lifetime sales. Galaxy is the highest selling 3D Mario game and it only hit 10 million on the Wii, with a 100 million user install base. The last Black Ops sold 14 million just on PS4 alone. If the Switch winds up selling 130 million units lifetime, and Odyssey becomes a Nintendo Selects title for $20, then it might beat CoD WWII. But that's a really long shot. "
Literally a majority of your comment is ridiculous attach rate mumbo jumbo, so I showed you why attach rates are, *for the most part*, are bad in making logical arguments. Now you can keep saying "well that's not what I meant! well that's not what I said!" but it is what you said and I can only derive what you meant by what you said. It's not a strawman. And you backing up no evidence to show this just makes this point worse.
Maybe this is just a case of you meaning to say something, but not communicating it in text. I'm a pretty big advocate for editing posts or replies, and I don't think it's something to be ashamed of. Sometimes I don't communicate an idea how I want, or I don't get my full point across so I just edit a reply or post. Given that i've read what you wrote, maybe that's the case? I can only argue with what you write down, i'm not telepathic.
3. No problem. I will admit, I got a bit heated, so apologies on my part from coming off like an asshole. But a majority of my replies were against using attach rates, the part about Nintendo having better attach rates was just an interesting factiod that could be used as a logical point.
I'm only focusing on your notion of attach rates so much, because it composed a majority of your original comment. Like I said, i'm sure you have some other logical reasons why WW2 would outsell Odyssey, and I might not even agree with them - but it seems like attach rates and console sales is your main reason.
4. I really shouldn't have to explain this, I mean you probably already know where i'm coming with this. Buuuuuttt.....
Super Mario 64 got 11+ million sales. On a system that sold 32 million units. That pretty much throws out the attach rate argument.
Now I have just been criticizing your same point over and over again. So you might say "Well jeez alchemist, you fucking piece of shit. If it's not console base what is it?"
Simple. Interest. That's the secret here. You see, Mario and Zelda games sell more on interest then they do install base. Now of course, if it's a platform with few sales it's chance of exceeding said platforms sales is nearly impossible. Or if it's a newly marketed platform like the Switch, then it's sales might be capped early on because not everyone has the console. There's also the chance that niche franchises like Metroid might sell bad on a system that does not catter to that audience. But because games like Mario are so mainstream, they sell more based around how much hype, interest, or innovation there is in the product than any other factor.
A great example of this is Super Mario Sunshine. Super Mario Sunshine sold only 6.3 million units. Now ... I know i've been slamming attach rates, but like I said they make sense to use in some contexts. Without sounding like a hypocrite, let me say something interesting about the Gamecube. The Nintendo 64, which sold 32.93 million units, sold 224.97 million software. On the other hand, the Gamecube, which sold a measely 21.74 million consoles, sold 208.57 million units of software. This gives the Gamecube a much better attach rate of software to hardware. The Nintendo 64 sold 6.83 software per 1 console sold. Whereas the Gamecube sold 9.6 software units per console sold. Software clearly sold on the Gamecube, to the point that it almost had software sales matching the Nintendo 64 despite having 11 million less units sold. This is all using Nintendo's official numbers, by the way. Did Super Mario Sunshine do 6.3 million because of the Gamecube's low install base?
No. It sold because the interest wasn't there, similar to Wind Waker. I've said this before and I'll say this again. In relation of software to hardware, Switch is most easily comparable to a Nintendo 64. The games that they are trying to sell on Switch are innovative titles that push the boundaries of what these franchises can do, similar to Mario 64 and Ocarina of Time. Also similar to the N64, these are games that are technical marvels in comparison to the hardware they're running on. Sure, the leap might not be the same as 2D to 3D, but in some ways you could argue going from a 3DS to a Switch is just as big. We're seeing almost as much hype for Odyssey as Breath of the Wild, a game that was advertised for 3 years and teased for 5. And we've only known Odyssey's existence for 6 months.
Add to all this that the game will most likely have an addition 1 mil from Japan, and things are already looking clear for Odyssey.
6. (I skipped 5)
" If a large majority of pre-orders come from hardcore gamers, then point six could be meaningless. If pre-orders come largely from casuals, then that does not bode well for CoD: WWII. "
This is entirely a non-point. The people who pre-order are both casuals and hardcore gamers. Hardcore gamers do not account for that other 700k. Even if they did though ... wouldn't that just mean that hardcore gamers would buy the game LESS than Black Ops 3? You're looking at demographics as if what demographic pulls out will change how much potential sales the game gets, but that wouldn't balance out with more casuals buying the game, that's not how demographics work. You can tell that by just about any franchise gone casual that had a hardcore fanbase, what matters isn't what demographic has the most sales, what matters is that you try to get the biggest demographic possible to control sales. If only hardcore gamers pre-order, and those pre-orders make up the 700k difference between BLOPS3 and WW2, that means that the sales would potentially be devistated by a few million copies. Since this is *just* accounting for the pre-order demographic and not hardcore gamers who don't ever pre-order and don't have interest.
