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Depends on the definition of success.

It's a small studio that Microsoft is helping out and AFAIK MS is footing the marketing bills. So how much does it really need to sell, in Early Access mind you, to be a success? Or is it like Titanfall where the exclusive factor sways the success barometer into something laughably exaggerated?

People have thrown numbers out from 500k up to 3 million. All of that is a success imho. This is an Early Access game without a huge team or budget.