Xbox One demand will surpass supply (Poll included)

[DroidKnight]

I've mentioned this in the past a few times vaguely in posts, but thought I would delve into this subject with a little more detail (...for the thread nazis, this is an opinion piece with predictions).

The demand for the Xbox One S and the Xbox One X will be higher than we have seen in 2 years.  I also foresee Xbox One sales surpassing the PS4 sales for the United States before the end of 2018.

4K gaming and 4K TV's are going to be pushed really hard this holiday season, and many retailers will be putting together Samsung TV / XBox One bundles. Regardless of the lack of 4K content, people are always wanting the bigger better packages and will be upgrading to a 4K TV purchase over the 1080ps (future proofing their investments).

30 million Xbox One owners have had 4 years to listen to PS4 owners bash their less powerful consoles.  What percentage of those will upgrade to the newer hardware Xbox One X?  I'm guessing between 10 and 20 percent will.  At just 10% that would be 3 million.  I don't think Microsoft will have that many units available this year.  It will be months before they can manufacture enough Xbox One Xs to meet just the initial demand.  How many duel or tri console owners will also be early to adopt the Xbox One X?  

Now let me address the "ELEPHANT" in the room.  PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds.  Microsoft was able to negotiate publishing rights with Bluehole's game, but the question is how long is the exclusiveness?  If it's a month to 3 months, I don't think it will make too large of an impact on Microsoft's console sales.  But it they have a year of it being an exclusive or an exclusive period, then this is the game changer.  Bluehole has been quiet now on any information regarding this.  PUBG is a beast on PC currently, and will be as well on console.  10+ million sales on Xbox One easily.  This game is barely in early access, only has one map, few game modes and is selling like hotcakes.  New maps are on the way and mods are being discussed.  This game will sell consoles (alot of them).  

So these three factors will have the largest impact on the supply and demand.  For those who can't get their hands on the Xbox One X, they will settle for the Xbox One S making it a scarce commodity as well.