What % off next-gen console owners actually own multiples? Bad science?

[Mifely]

The US census predicted that there would be 103 million households in the US by 2015, which is what I was basing my 95 million number on. If that number is indeed larger, the percentage of multi-nextgen-console owners would actually be larger as well.

It bugs me to not know, so I backed up my numbers to the date the article was published (early April, so I'm using April 5 VGChartz numbers to be conservative), and assumed the 111mil households you say were in the US in 2006 (again, to be conservative). I get the following, scary, results:


3% of 111 mil households in the US (I think this number is probably more likely than the 5%, but who knows) ==

3.33 mil

2/3rds own 3, 1/3 owns 2, according to the new conjecture.

6.66 million consoles owned by "triple owners"... 2.22 million owned by "double owners" == 8.88 million

26.02mil next-gen consoles (April 5, 2008) - 8.8mil = 17.14

+ 3.33 == 20.47 million next-gen console households (April 5, 2008 at study time)

3.33 / 20.47 == 16.27%


That's getting a little more substantial, than trying to apply the study to current numbers, which is going to skew the data (and who knows in what direction!). Still it does seem reasonable. Here's the scariest part:

2.22 - 3.33 million next-gen households own a Wii and either a X360, a PS3, or both. Lets say 2.77, because I hate using mins and maxes. The number could be anywhere from 2.22 to 3.33, of course.

That means, at April 5, 2008, 2.77 mil / 10.38 mil or ~27% (21% - 32% range) of Wii owners in America also owned a X360 or PS3. Right now I am thinking "holy... that can't be right"... but I can't see the error right now.

If that % is anywhere near correct, that bodes VERY badly for the Wii, with regards to cross-platform titles, and may go a LONG way to explain why games like Madden '08 did so poorly on the Wii, relative to the more powerful consoles, and also may explain why publishers just plain tend to refuse to bring new AAA titles to all three consoles, and thus the Wii gets shovelware and PS2 ports.

At this point, I think this study is just plain bunk, as far as the real numbers go. I'm not ready to go to town with believing that 27% of Wii owners also own a X360 or PS3... but apparently they might.

It does, however, go to show what a buncha BS media sources like Gamasutra are. Nice spin they're trying to put on that study.