According to this study:
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=18107
only 3% of respondents said they owned two of (Wii/X360/PS3) and 2% said they owned all three. Respondents refers to the entire study, which was on gaming in general. Some 72% of respondents said they played games. If all of those respondents were next-gen console gamers (I'm guessing many were PC gamers, or did not own a next-gen console at all) that "5% own-more-than-one" is really nearly 7% of gamers.
The study actually implies that 5% of the US owns more than one (corrected to 3%, see below), which may imply that a huge % of next-gen owners own more than one. Since the entirety of the 72% which owned games did not likely own a next-gen console.... that percentage of next-gen console owners, who own more than one, could be much more signifigant than many have surmised.
Does anyone have the actual study, and can lay down the real numbers? In other words, does anyone know what % of the respondents owned at least one next-gen console?
This study has been used for a lot of bad science on this site... it'd be nice to have it cleared up.
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From a later post, for easy first-time reading:
Some guessing, until someone can fill in the real numbers:
Approx # of households in the US: 95 million
Number of (Wii/X360/PS3) consoles sold in the US: 28.67 million
Percentage of households which own multiple consoles, if the study was a decent sample: 5%
0.05 * 95 mil = 2.85 mil (3% own 2) + 1.9 mil (2% own 3) = 4.75 mil.
1.9 * 3 = 5.7 million consoles in 3-console households
2.85 * 2 = 5.7 million consoles in 2-console househoulds
== 11.4 million consoles in multi-console environments
28.67 million - 11.4 million == 17.27 mil households with one next-gen console
+ 1.9 million with 3
+ 2.85 million with 2
== 22.02 million households with next gen consoles
4.75 / 22.02 == 21.57% of next-gen console owners own more than one next gen console.
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OR (3% of households are multi-owners, not 5%)
3% of 95 mil households in the US ==
2.85 mil
2/3rds own 3, 1/3 owns 2, according to the new conjecture.
5.7 million consoles owned by "triple owners"... 1.9 million owned by "double owners" == 7.6 million
28.67 - 5.7 - 1.9 =21.07
+ 2.85 == 23.92 million next-gen console households
2.85 / 23.92 == 11.91% of next-gen console owners own more than one next gen console.
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And lastly (more numbers from below):
The US census predicted that there would be 103 million households in the US by 2015, which is what I was basing my 95 million number on. If that number is indeed larger, the percentage of multi-nextgen-console owners would actually be larger as well.
It bugs me to not know, so I backed up my numbers to the date the article was published (early April, so I'm using April 5 VGChartz numbers to be conservative), and assumed the 111mil households you say were in the US in 2006 (again, to be conservative). I get the following, scary, results:
3% of 111 mil households in the US (I think this number is probably more likely than the 5%, but who knows) ==
3.33 mil
2/3rds own 3, 1/3 owns 2, according to the new conjecture.
6.66 million consoles owned by "triple owners"... 2.22 million owned by "double owners" == 8.88 million
26.02mil next-gen consoles (April 5, 2008) - 8.8mil = 17.14
+ 3.33 == 20.47 million next-gen console households (April 5, 2008 at study time)
3.33 / 20.47 == 16.27% of next-gen console households owned multiple next-gen consoles at the time of the study.
That's getting a little more substantial, than trying to apply the study to current numbers, which is going to skew the data (and who knows in what direction!). Still it does seem reasonable. Here's the scariest part:
2.22 - 3.33 million next-gen households own a Wii and either a X360, a PS3, or both. Lets say 2.77, because I hate using mins and maxes. The number could be anywhere from 2.22 to 3.33, of course.
That means, at April 5, 2008, 2.77 mil / 10.38 mil or ~26.69% (21.39% - 32.08% range) of Wii owners in America also owned a X360 or PS3. Right now I am thinking "holy... that can't be right"... but I can't see the error right now.
If that % is anywhere near correct, that bodes VERY badly for the Wii, with regards to cross-platform titles, and may go a LONG way to explain why games like Madden '08 did so poorly on the Wii, relative to the more powerful consoles, and also may explain why publishers just plain tend to refuse to bring new AAA titles to all three consoles, and thus the Wii gets shovelware and PS2 ports.
At this point, I think this study is just plain bunk, as far as the real numbers go. I'm not ready to go to town with believing that 27% of Wii owners also own a X360 or PS3... but apparently they might. The volunteer nature of this study may have biased it horribly as well.
It does, however, go to show what a buncha BS media sources like Gamasutra are. Nice spin they're trying to put on that study.
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Another post of mine:
"I certainly agree that the volunteer NPD study was... really messed up. That's basically the point of my post. There are a lot of "The Wii doesn't suffer from in-household competition" posts here on VGChartz that quote that study. I think we've all proven that said study is, in fact totally misleading, and I believe, in fact, might imply the opposite."
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Does that seem correct? If I'm not mistaken, those "America" numbers might account for all of North America, and not just the US... not sure how that would change the numbers, but... would it make it smaller? larger? Not sure.
