StarDoor said:
Okay... so you live in a world where people buy consoles because they're cheap, and not because they have games. If anything, your logic predicts that the Switch will be massively more successful than the 3DS, because it's already selling better while being much more expensive. So once they cut the price in a few years, this "affordability" bonus will kick in and then the Switch can ride out another 70 million sales on top of whatever they sold in 2017/2018, which looks to be around 25+ million |
I never said games were not important for the 3DS. I said they were a less important factor in purchasing the system compared to the Switch. With the 3DS being a much lower price, you're more likely to purchase it based on one or two games alone, compared to the Switch, the general consumer is less likely to pay $300 just to play one or two games. This is particularly relatable with the fact that a major part of the install-base for Nintendo handhelds are children. The 3DS' library, for its price, sufficed. There was Mario Kart, 3D Land, Star Fox 3D, OoT, and a hell lot of third party games and ports. At least for $170, that was enough for people to buy the system, hence it selling around 15 million after its price drop in its first year of it. With the Switch, it's going to need to a wider variety of games in order to sell as much as the 3DS after its price drop to incentivize the reasoning as to purchasing the $300 system, which ideally should offer more worth.
Right now, that seems to be happening (and foreseeable with the prospect of a 3DS successor not happening), as there was BOTW, MK8D, Splatoon, ARMS, and upcoming Odyssey, Xenoblade, Rabbids, Warriors, and some ports. The point is, the game library matters more for the Switch than the 3DS. This is reinforced by the fact that Switch has tougher competition with the similarly priced PS4 with a defined game library. That's all I was saying in my original comment, I don't know why it took so many replies to justify this.
Also, you're skipping ahead and making assumptions; generalizing and rationalizing the data we have currently. Right now with this limited data, these abstract comparisons are just arduous fallacies (i.e 10m+ Switch sales in 2018). 5 months of sales data don't ultimately mean the next 2 years will be the same (especially since BOTW and MK8D were good boost for the first few months). Anything can happen, and I can have doubts in Nintendo not messing something up in the process. The Switch is doing really well for now, and I want that to continue. But I'm keeping an open eye.
