It's inevitable that the majority of JRPG's will wind up on either the Wii or the PS3. A huge chunk of the JRPG consumer pie is Japan, and those two consoles are the ones that rule Japan. In the end, it's still about making money, and JRPG's bread is buttered one way. The PS3's Japan presence is still relatively small at 2+ million (a sell-through rate of almost 50% would still be needed to sell a million copies), so JRPG publishers, who know most of their money is going to come from Japan, will try to delay their releases until after the Japan userbase balloons from a Final Fantasy launch or something, but, once it happens, you can expect a deluge of Japanese game launches.
In my opinion, the Microsoft strategy in pursuing Japan is flawed. It's not happening. Microsoft should abandon Japan and spend the money it's wasting on attempting to woo Japan towards solidying its waning advantage in the U.S. and trying to figure out Europe. Instead of solidly winning one of the three territories this gen, I think Microsoft will end up losing in all three.
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