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thismeintiel on 31 July 2017
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KBG29 said:
thismeintiel said:
I'm going to guess the Vega 64 is what the PS5 is going to be rocking. Of course, I'm going to guess it'll be somewhat customized with a few advancements in tech made along the way. So, ~6.5X-7X more powerful than the OG PS4 and 3X more powerful than the Pro. Add in a much better Zen or Zen+ CPU and 16GB of RAM. I'd say that's good enough for a generation leap.

Not enough for next gen. Every PlayStation console has had ~10 - 12x increase in CPU/GPU power and a 16x increase in RAM. What you are describing sounds like a PS4.5, as the Pro is basically a PS4.1. 

As for the OP. We are starting to reach the point when PC gaming looks interesting to me during the console cycle. I know the idea behind the Pro and the X is to stop people from going PC, but they need to offer something more high end IMO. I would love a $999.99 XBO or PS4 that can stand toe to toe with a 1800X + RX 64 PC.

I will be buying the XOX this holiday. If Sony can not deliver something next year (PS4 Premium or PS5), then I will seriously have to consider a new PC.

The number of times you jump in power isn't as important as what you are getting inside that jump.  The PS2 was theorectically 30x-40x the power of the PS1, with 12x the RAM.  The PS3 was theorectically ~40x the power as the PS2, with ~14x the RAM.

Now, as we look at the jump to PS4, we can see what I'm saying kick in.  If Sony were to keep the same thing going, the PS4 would have had to be 7.2-9.6 Tflops, something that would have been IMPOSSIBLE for a $399 box in 2013 (or even now, for that matter.)  What we did get was a theorectical jump of ~7.5x, and an extra 1.6 Tflops of power.  The PS2 was a jump of ~6 Gflops and the PS3 was a jump of about 230 Gflops.  BTW, we did see RAM increase stay on par with the previous gens, so there is that.

If the PS5 was to keep the same jump as previous gens, compared to the PS4's actual numbers, we would be looking at a jump to 55+ Tflops, with 96+ GB of RAM.  Now, who seriously thinks that is going to happen?  No one who is sane.  We are going to be getting a jump in power more in line with the jump from PS3 to PS4, with a big decrease in the jump in RAM.  16GB is very realistic, with 32GB being the top realistic pick on a wishlist.

Pemalite said:
thismeintiel said:

As was the GPU that the PS4 used.  It needs to be if it's going to be in a $399 box. 

It actually doesn't though.
Besides... When the Playstation 4 launched we only had Graphics Graphics Core Next 2. There wasn't a massive feature set divide at an architectural level. (The Playstation 4 adopted some improvements anyway.)

Vega is a 2017 part.
2018 we get Navi.
2019 we get something else.
2020 when I expect next gen consoles to drop... We should have something else again.

thismeintiel said:

To make the PS5 with the specs I'm expecting, a Vega 64, at least a Ryzen 1700

Ryzen 1700 ain't happening.
People expecting Ryzen with the Xbox One X. The Xbox One X was timed right, it had a higher price, there were potential "hints" like Microsft showcasing Xbox next to Ryzen... And I was right then that Ryzen wasn't happening. And I doubt it will happen next gen either.

thismeintiel said:

No one is paying that much for a console, as history continues to show us time and time, again.  Give it another two years and all those prices will be at least cut in half.

Hardware itself doesn't dramatically change in manufacturing costs.

In a few years, AMD will have more efficient, faster and cheaper hardware at various price points than Vega.

 

Is there a reason you keep saying Navi is coming in 2018?  It is being reported now that it is coming out in 2019, which is the year I expect the PS5, or at least its announcement.  If somehow it does hit 2018, it'll be very late 2018 and in very limited quantities.  2018 is when they are going to be focusing on the Vega 20 (which is being made in 7nm 14nm+, so maybe that will be better for the PS5), or whatever that will be called, now, and the Vega 64 Pro Duo.  And since Vega was delayed, what makes you think Navi won't be?  I guess keep the hope alive.

And why wouldn't Ryzen happen exactly?  AMD's newer APUs coming in 2018 will be based on it, so why wouldn't Sony be using it in 1-2 years after that in their next console?  What else would they use?  And no, MS didn't time it just right.  The Ryzen had just come out and was expensive, so it was obvious MS wasn't going to be using it.  MS, if anything, timed it too late for their console.  While Jaguar cores seem outdated, they seem even more outdated in a $500 2017 console.  If they were going to continue using them, they should have launched with the Pro.  Of course, I doubt they had the same mid-gen plans as Sony, but they had to answer them with something.  Really, they should have just rode out the gen and used Ryzen in their next console.  As it is now, the XBX isn't going to do much and Sony can just answer with a console that makes it look weak in a couple of years.

Manufacturing costs always lower over time, even if not greatly after the first year or two.  Of course, at first, a lot of the cost is the manufacturer trying to make up for R&D costs.  AMD is not going to ignore those costs for Sony or MS, either.

Trumpstyle said:

My bold prediction is coming truer and truer. Nvidia will be the gpu in the next consoles.

Sony and Microsoft will be forced to use Nvidia in next-gen consoles because Amd gpus is just so bad compared to Nvidia.

This vega gpu needed 50% more die size(50%+ more transistors), a watercooler, hbm2 and almost twice the power (watt usage) to barely beat the geforce 1080. Expect the watercooler version have about 0-5% more performance then geforce 1080 and the non water cooler version to lose.

This card is hilariously bad, it's worse than polaris architecture (the gpu in ps4 pro and xbox one x). I don't know how AMD manage to make a card worse than their previously.

I still stand by this. Ps5 will have 4-6 ryzen cpu cores, a midrange nvidia gpu(whatever arhitecture comes after volta), 16gb gddr6 and 2 tb non-ssd drive. 2020 released time(will be using 7 nm Euv) 399$ and non backwards compatibility.

If Sony go amd gpu expect instead 2019 release date(will be using 7 nm non-Euv), 8 ryzen cpu cores, 8-9 teraflops navi gpu(might be polaris architecture if Navi is a disaster as Vega) but will be backwards compatibility.

Not going to happen.  Both MS and Sony have had problems with Nvidia over the pricing of their chips in the past.  It's the reason they went AMD this gen, with MS actually switching last gen.  I think they'll be sticking with AMD for quite some time.  We'll have to wait and see if Nintendo has the same problems with them as the other two did.  Plus, I'm sure after the huge success of the PS4, Sony is going to want to convince gamers to stick with them.  It'll be easier to do that with a B/C PS5, which will be much easier sticking with AMD's tech.