Forget the Elite, unless you really want to store a lot of data... There are no game installs on the 360, so 20 GB should be enough unless you want to copy a lot of videos or mp3s to your 360.
I bought the Premium, but the Arcade might also be a good idea if you can find a cheap and trustworthy second hand hard drive.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox_360#Comparison_of_features
If wikipedia is correct, the differences between the Arcade and the Premium are the absence of a hard drive, ethernet cable, component cables and headset. If you don't need the headset/component cables (for example, if you're planning to use HDMI) and don't mind the risk of a second hand hard drive, go for the Arcade.
My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957