If XBX fails, what next?

[darkenergy]

Shadow1980 said:

Mr Puggsly said:
If X1/X1X can maintain 7-8 million units a year, then they should just stay the course.

At some that could achieve the 360 userbase.

Here's how the XBO has been tracking against the 360 in the U.S., and what it's facing in the coming years:

At this point in its life, the 360 S wouldn't even be released yet for another year, and that was when the 360 really hit its stride. The XBO is still ahead of the 360 in aligned LTD sales, but let's look at where it's taken the lead:

All of its lead has come from its launch and the holidays. It was bleeding its surplus through the April-Oct. period of 2014, nearly all of the non-holiday period of 2016, and all of 2017 so far. It did trend slightly better than the 360 in the Jan.-Aug. period of 2015, but those gains got completely wiped out and then some in September.

The XBO S has failed to produce the same effects the 360 S did. The 360 S cause a huge surge in sales that persisted from its June 2010 launch on through to Q1 of 2012. Meanwhile, the XBO S produced an increase in sales that lasted until this January (sans November, which was a rough month compared the previous few Novembers for the console market in general), but its effects have already petered out. The X1X may provide a modest boost to sales, but we shouldn't expect a lot more than what we saw with the PS4 Pro. And continuing to drop the price won't help. Eventually, sales reach a point to where even deep price cuts won't reverse the decline in sales for any more than a month or two.

We also have to take into account market share. The 360 utterly dominated the PS3 in the U.S., while the PS4 has been the overall market leader this generation, having sold nearly 15% more units than the XBO. The 360 went on to eventually pull ahead of the Wii and become the second best-selling console ever the U.S., behind only the PS2. We shouldn't expect the XBO to replicate that.

Given all these facts, we can conclude with an extreme degree of confidence that the XBO will not attain the sales the 360 did, and that it's highly probably that it will fall at least several million short of the 360 in the U.S. If we expand to global sales, well, the XBO is barely a blip in Japan, and is selling so poorly that it makes the 360's sales there look good in comparison. And Europe isn't going to help things, either. If VGC's numbers are any indication, the XBO has already fallen behind the 360, and it's going to keep getting worse. A lot worse. While the XBO has been doing well in the UK, it's still a U.S.-like situation with the PS4 in the lead instead of Xbox dominating like it did last gen. On the continent, it's been a disaster. The XBO is almost certainly going to end falling 15-20 million short of the 360 globally.

How can you consider it a disaster when you stated at the end of your post that the X1 will fall 15-20 million of the 360 globally? That would make lifetime sales of the X1 between 63-68 million and that would make the X1 way more sucessful than the 50 million units sold some were saying won't happen in the other thread.

LudicrousSpeed said:
If it "fails" them I'm sure they'll focus on the next Xbox :)

They just posted a 9+ billion gaming revenue for the year, lol @ the idea that they are leaving.

Not to mention the rumor of MS are already designing the next Xbox according to a tweet that was posted some time ago.