irstupid said:
The point is all these polls are takign polls from just one place and not a good representation of the overal feel of america. Be like if your doing a survey in school and you hand out all of your survey questions to one class and then use that to prove how the rest of the school feels. And not just one class, but a biased class. Like going into Band class and asking the class what they think about the arts versus sports. Essentially a worthless poll. When doign their political polls, they sit in big cities to get large samples, cause everyoen knows larger samples are always better right? Well, not if all those large samples are from teh same "class" They just poll tons of people in big cities and then just use historical data to guess how the rest would go. Watching the election night youc oudl see the many many times they were surprised on these counties outside the city that voted Obama the last two elections yet went to Trump. That was because they never polled in those places. THey only care about the big cities. They predict Michigan by Detroit polling, ect. |
I get what you are saying but I don't think they used that flawed of reasoning. It would be like taking polls in Austin, TX area which is more liberal than any other part of Texas and applying it across Texas. They should know through historical data what areas lean a certain way politically. Trump didn't even carry Texas with a wide margin which most republican candidates in past won Texas by way larger margins. As for your point of them being surprised in Trump winning in areas Obama won in.... I think it had more to do with Democrats not showing up to vote especially the youth due to the lack of enthusiasm for such a toxic candidate as Hillary and them feeling burned over Bernie (there was the Bernie or bust movement). If Bernie or anyone else with less toxicity ran against Trump then the democrats would have won the electoral college. However what we got to vote for was shit or shit. The republican base which is made up of a larger percentage of older people (who are more likely to vote) won the election because Hillary couldn't drive up any support from the youth, independents, and even her own party. Even though it looked like the republicans were more fractured before the election it was actually the democrats and their inability to garner a greater percentage of independent voters, youth and their base. Hillary was so flawed that an even more flawed candidate was able to win because of mainly the disdain for career politicians and the hope that he would "drain the swamp". It was all just smoke and mirrors and it came down to people believing his bullshit more than Hillary's bullshit.
