Predict PS4 Sales Every Year Going Forward

[zorg1000]

LethalP said:

zorg1000 said:

I have a hard time seeing 2019 being down less than 1% from 2018.

2017, 18 million (LTD, ~72 million)

2018, 15 million (LTD, ~87 million)

2019, 11 million (LTD, ~98 million)

2020, 8 million (LTD, ~106 million) PS5 releases Fall

2021, 4 million (LTD, ~112 million)

2022 onward, 3 million (LTD, ~115 million)

I look at it like this, according to VGChartz the PS3 sold 13.8 million units in 2010 (It's 4th year like 2017 is to the PS4). In 2011 it sold 14.7 million units so it was up quite a bit. What if PS4 does the same in 2018? It's actually more likely it follows gen 7's sales trends than gen 6's after all.

2012 for PS3 saw a decline but it did sell over 12 million, and it was more expensive than what the PS4 is right now even in it's 6th year. I dunno, I just don't see PS4's sales trends falling below the PS3's, especially when you take into account price cuts to what could be likely $199 or below by then. I actually think my OP estimates are conservative, from 2017 to 2020.

no, PS3 had a very slow start while PS4 had a record start so using PS3 to base your sales curve on is a really bad idea.