zorg1000 said:
LethalP said:
As we know from January 1st 2017 to June 11th 2017 the PS4 has sold 7 million units (53.4m to 60.4m). That's 5 months and 11 days, it's fantastic stuff.
So It's got me thinking how it would be fun to predict when it would reach certain milestones, or what it would sell by the beginning of each year going forward. So I'll start (bear with me, first thread lol):
Sold by January 2018 = 72 million (18.6 million in 2017)
Sold by January 2019 = 88 million (16 million in 2018)
Sold by January 2020 = 103 million (15 million in 2019)
Sold by January 2021 = 113 million (10 million in 2020) (Year PS5 launches)
Sold by Jaunary 2022 = 119 million (6 million in 2021)
Sold by January 2023 = 122 million (3 million in 2022)
Sold by January 2024 = 123.7 million (1.7 million 2023) (10 years on the market)
Lifetime Sales = 125 million
Honestly I think I'm being conservative for a console that will probably sell at $149 when the PS5 releases in 2020 with frequent sales at $99.
What say the forum? Am I lowballing it or is it ludicrously optimistic?
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I have a hard time seeing 2019 being down less than 1% from 2018.
2017, 18 million (LTD, ~72 million)
2018, 15 million (LTD, ~87 million)
2019, 11 million (LTD, ~98 million)
2020, 8 million (LTD, ~106 million) PS5 releases Fall
2021, 4 million (LTD, ~112 million)
2022 onward, 3 million (LTD, ~115 million)
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I look at it like this, according to VGChartz the PS3 sold 13.8 million units in 2010 (It's 4th year like 2017 is to the PS4). In 2011 it sold 14.7 million units so it was up quite a bit. What if PS4 does the same in 2018? It's actually more likely it follows gen 7's sales trends than gen 6's after all.
2012 for PS3 saw a decline but it did sell over 12 million, and it was more expensive than what the PS4 is right now even in it's 6th year. I dunno, I just don't see PS4's sales trends falling below the PS3's, especially when you take into account price cuts to what could be likely $199 or below by then. I actually think my OP estimates are conservative, from 2017 to 2020.
