Ka-pi96 said:
I know how to use google just fine, thanks. Ok so let's see shall we... firstly you fail to take in to account the fact that the majority of your sources (probably all in fact), are US only and US =/= the world. Secondly, the majority of your sources are about viewership of traditional TV networks and so are completely irrelevant. Yes, streaming is having a big impact on traditional networks and will almost surely overtake it (if it hasn't already), but people can and do stream youtube, netflix, amazon prime etc to their TVs. Thirdly, your sources fail to account for the fact that TV sets and computer monitors are for all intents and purposes the same thing. Can people watch traditional TV, stream to and connect video game consoles to their computer monitors? Yes on all accounts. I myself have a computer monitor as my only TV and it works fine for all of that. So all your data suggests is that A. traditional TV networks are declining. B. people are less likely to own mutliple TVs. And C. tablets etc are more popular with young people. A is completely irrelevant. And B/C in no way suggest that TVs will be dead by the time that the PS5 releases (2-3 years maybe). It suggests that the number of TVs sold may decline, sure. But something declining doesn't mean it's dying. Oh and remember that part where I said US =/= the world? Well here's some worldwide data for you... http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan-business/2017/02/04/490785/global-lcd.htm Sure, that fails to account for non-LCD TVs, which I'd assume is where any decline is, but that still shows a 1.6% increase in sales for LCD TVs. And of course, there's this "WitsView forecasts that global TV shipments for 2017 will reach 225 million units, up 2.5% compared with the prior year." More growth predicted for this year, huh? Again, that's only referring to LCD TVs. So even if their forecasts are correct there could still be a decline overall. But still, LCD TV shipments still growing really doesn't suggest that they'll be dead within the next couple of years... |
First, I love how your impecable argument is freaking 1 percent growth. Oh, but next year its TWO PERCENT. WOW, what amazing numbers. Clearly this industry is growing by leaps and bounds. Nevertheless, you may want to look at why there was an increase. From your article:
Shipment growth was attributed to the strong sales in North America's distribution channels during the busy season, the increasing affordability of large TVs and the robust housing market in China, WitsView said in a press statement.
WitsView expects TV makers will increasingly focus on developing and promoting higher-margin products such as models featuring large 4K displays. Consequently, the average size of TV sets will expand significantly as well.
Models sized 50 inches and larger are expected to make up nearly 30 percent of total shipments for this year, while the share of UHD-resolution products in total shipments may reach 31.5 percent.
So you have anemic growth of 1.6 percent driven by purchases of larger TVs and China. This means people aren't buying new TV but they are just upgrading. The fact that the market is focusing on "higher-margin products," tells us that we are seeing the market focus on its best customers rather than reaching new consumers. As I noted with my data, its the younger generation who isn't buying TVs. If you compare this to data showing that TV viewership is declining (this trend is the same in Europe), then you can see market growth is due to buying better sets rather than an increase in penetration.
The worst part? This decline mirrors GPD growth in both the US and Europe. Basically, the TV market, which has declined in previous years, only keeping pace with GPD growth in 2016 and that seems to be driven to selling better sets.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-economic-growth-slowed-in-2016-to-1-9/
And lastly, there is this
Digital media has now surpassed linear TV to become the No.1 ad revenue category and will grow 14 percent in 2017 to $204 billion. "Within digital, the majority of advertising sales (54 percent) is now generated by impressions and clicks on mobile devices," the firm said. "Video and social formats will continue to drive digital advertising growth (30 percent or more) while paid search will grow double digit again (13 percent) to remain the #1 format."MAGNA forecasts media owners’ net advertising sales to grow by +3.7% to $505 billion
So where is the growth? It's not in traditional TVs but in mobile. Advertisers are moving there. If TV was this healthy industry as you implied, why are advertisers moving away from it. You missed this because you can't look at the big picture. You saw increased sales figures, didn't read what was written and say "No problem here." You missed what the numbers so plainly told you. You have a growth not from serving new customers but serving core customers. At the same time, advertising and viewership are down. Consumers are moving away from traditional TVs.
"Oh, but what about monitors. You clearly forgot about monitors. See, there is no problem because you can attach your PS4 to a monitor." Yes, because there isn't this platform that can be more powerful than the PS4 Pro, has more games, more variety of controllers and a greater range of prices. Yes, that platform does not exist.
So let's take this full circle. You have the younger generation ditching TVs and the market catering to its best customers. So which console manufacturer is going to do better. Nintendo, who is focusing on mobile, or Sony who is sticking with traditional TVs. The answer is Nintendo. Sony is becoming a company for middle-aged men (as evidence by their plethora of slow walking games), and that's primarily who will buy these new TVs. Older generations are watching more TV, but the next generation is watching less and having fewer (if any) TVs. Sony won't be able to capture youths. They will have to appeal to an older demographic. This is why their E3 is a trashfire. They are showing they aren't changing when the market is changing.
Visit my site for more
Known as Smashchu in a former life
