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Lawlight on 22 June 2017
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Shadow1980 said:
Lawlight said:

Your optimistic scenario seems fine but I have trouble understanding your pessimistic view because it would mean that, if Sony meets their shipment forecast for FY2018, then they would only ship 17M more PS4s before discontinuing it. It'll have to drop by around 45-50% every year after this curreny fiscal to only sell 95M-100M.

Pessimistic scenario assumes 2019 launch for PS5 and/or steeper than expected drop-offs in 2018 vs 2017.

Last I heard, Sony was projecting 78M shipped (not sold to customers) by March 31, 2018. That's 18M for the April '17 - March '18 period. I'm thinking 72-73M sold by year's end, and maybe 75-76M by the end of Q1 2018, consistent with Sony's shipment projections. Assuming the PS5 is announced in the first half of 2020, that gives them roughly two years, give or take, to sell another ~25M units to pass the Wii before the PS5 is announced. Possible? Yes. Likely? I'm not so sure.

I think 2018 will be down YoY, that is unless Sony is able to retain sales momentum through big permanent price cuts to both the base model and Pro this holiday, and even then that might not help. As a system ages, it is faced with the reality of dwindling numbers of new potential customers. At some point, a system will pass its peak, and nothing, not even price cuts, will reverse the decline. Price cuts have proven to have greatly diminishing returns later in a system's life. The PS4 has already sold almost as much as the PS3 & 360 had done when they peaked, and they had very late peaks compared to the historical norm and thus greater LTD sales at the point they passed their peaks compared to past systems (and the Wii). The PS4 is approaching a saturation point, and sales cannot continue at current levels for long. 2017 could very well be the peak year if it continues to be up YoY, but I honestly doubt 2018 will see the PS4 maintain significant momentum. If it does, it'll be setting an entirely new precedent.

Until next year rolls around and proves me right or wrong, I'm still going with ~35M in NA, ~10M in Japan, and 40-45M in Europe for lifetime sales, putting it at 85-90M in the three main regions, leaving the rest of the world to pick up the slack. RoW sales could be between 15-20M, so 100-110M lifetime globally, in keeping with my median estimate.

Why are you using sold through figures when we only have shipment numbers for the Wii? Use shipment numbers for the PS4 as well. So, 78M by the end of Q1 2018. So 2 years to ship ~22M units before the PS5 is released, assuming Q1 2020.

In any case, the PS4 won't stop selling once the PS5 is released.