| trent44 said: A supposed 4DS, or whatever you would call it, is no longer viable at this point in time. They will keep the 3DS around through 2019 to milk it dry. And, then they will release the Switch Mini (possibly Fall 2019) for $200 to take its place. Right now, the Switch is hybrid hardware, another Switch SKU can be dedicated home console hardware, while another Switch SKU can be dedicated handheld hardware, etc. All sharing the same game library, same OS, but with different form factors. Having to only make games for one system, with many form factors, eliminates redundant development costs. This also allows Nintendo to be more agile in having a regular release schedule of games, which they irrefutably struggled with both the 3DS and Wii U years on end. It is likely that the Switch will outsell both lifetime hardware and software totals of the 3DS and Wii U combined. All while reducing manufacturing costs, development costs, and marketing costs as they only need to target 1 platform. Nintendo is diversifing in other ways with Android/iOS games, cards, amiibo, other liscenced merchandise, theme park, etc., etc. so their eggs are not actually in only 1 basket. Getting past 80m 3DSes would take several years more if Nintendo was that persistant, as YoY sales will drop as more and more now, people are replacing their 3DSes with Nintendo Switches. |
First, I appreciate the well thought out and thorough response.
Otherwise, I mostly agree with the majority of your points. While I mentioned the 3DS I certainly did not mean to suggest that they'll be sticking with the 3DS specifically or that they'll soon be releasing a "4DS", but rather I only meant to suggest that we shouldn't assume Nintendo will consolidate all of its resources onto a single platform.
I too feel we're probably looking at a late 2019 Switch Mini that will serve the role of a proper handheld once manufacturing costs drop enough and the form factor is actually possible to allow for it. Not long after we'll probably see a more powerful Switch released to at least keep pace with the back end of console hardware, which is a key (if not primary) selling point for the Switch concept itself. At that point Nintendo would still have two platforms with the more powerful Switch likely sporting either exclusives or far superior versions that are ported to their weaker hardware, but they'd be very easy to port between and develop for both simultaneously. That, to me, seems like the most likely
For the moment though, as you point out, Nintendo has a price range covered from under $100 up to $300, and there's little motive for them to change anything through 2017 and 2018. By 2019, though, that replacement might be cost feasible, but the main suggestion here is that Nintendo won't want to limit itself only to a more expensive portable console, which excludes those who primarily bought their less expensive handheld offerings in the past.
The Switch Mini really seems like the only thing that could replace the 3DS line while also offering enough to justify it over the advantages you listed that the Switch itself offered, which would primarily be a lower cost, smaller size, stronger battery, and in general feature the shape, controls and aesthetic of your typical handhelds. There has always been a market for that sort of product, and I really doubt they'd have trouble finding one for their Switch Mini were it to have these features.
Otherwise, I certainly hope you're right about the Switch outselling the 3DS and Wii U. It definitely appears to be on the right track, but my only concern is in regards to how quickly the Switch may begin to lag behind dedicated consoles in hardware. Unlike the PS4 Pro or Xbox1 X which are at the peak of console hardware and receive ports of games designed for the more average PS4/Xbox1 hardware, the Switch is weaker than said average (not substantially so, but it is) and can't afford to fall much farther behind. A mid-gen refresh, meanwhile, would only solve this issue if they allowed for games to release on it that don't release on the original model, as requiring they perform on both would likely be prohibitively difficult more often than not. The issue is that I suspect such a mid gen upgrade will seem necessary within about 3 years or so, which would make for a difficult PR situation as OG Switch owners would justifiably not want to be left behind so quickly.
Basically, mid-gen refreshes have really complicated the picture for the Switch. I hope they're able to keep pace hardware-wise, meet the important price points, continue to offer cheaper alternatives, and not screw their fans in the process. It's a tightrope walk, but they're off to a great start.
