Predict When will Ps4 Outsell Wii

[Lawlight]

Shadow1980 said:

Lawlight said:

I see where your issue is - you're using VGChartz numbers. You can use them for rough guestimations but not for proper comparison.

Let me ask you this:

How many PS4s do you think will be sold by:

March 2018:

March 2019:

March 2020:

March 2021:

I use VGC just for Europe because there's no other source for Europe numbers. I use NPD for U.S. and Media Create for Japan. And the PS4 is in fact behind the Wii in the U.S. and Japan based on NPD and MC numbers, respectively, and will likely depend on Europe to make up the deficit that will almost certainly be remaining by the end of the PS4's life cycle in the U.S. & Japan.

Here's my optimistic scenario for PS4 sales through to the end of its tenth full year assuming a 2020 launch for the PS5.

So, that's 110-115M for an optimistic scenario.

Pessimistic scenario: 95-100M.

Median scenario: ~105M

Now, I'd be pleasantly surprised if the PS4 was down by less than 20% next year, but if this really is the peak year, then given past post-peak drops 20% is likely.

Your optimistic scenario seems fine but I have trouble understanding your pessimistic view because it would mean that, if Sony meets their shipment forecast for FY2018, then they would only ship 17M more PS4s before discontinuing it. It'll have to drop by around 45-50% every year after this curreny fiscal to only sell 95M-100M.