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haxxiy on 20 June 2017
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Shadow1980 said:

I meant to reply to this last week, but I started having internet issues when I tried doing so and never got back around to it.

In any case, I honestly don't think it's a given that the PS4 will pass the Wii, and if it does it'll be damn close. Earlier in the gen I figured 120M would be an easy target for the PS4, but now I'm not so sure, and I think it'll sell a bit less than that, with 110M being as high as I'm willing to go.

The PS4 is trailing the Wii big time in the U.S.:


With a deficit of 10 million units and growing the PS4 has a lot of catching up to do. That's not going to happen this year. The Wii sold just over 7M in the U.S. in 2009, whereas the PS4's best was 5.74M in 2015. Now, the Wii did peak early and decline fast, so we can expect Year 5 to be the time when the PS4 starts to narrow the gap. The Wii did only a bit over 4.5M in 2011 and just shy of 2M in 2012, and about 1.1M combined between 2013 & 2014. But the PS4 will have to sell at least another 23M to pass the Wii in the U.S., whereas so far it's sold just shy of 19M. I don't see that happening. While it will narrow the current gap, it won't close it. In fact, it won't come even close to doing so. Personally, I think the PS4 will at most sell 35M in the U.S. lifetime, giving it a final deficit of about 7 million units.

As for Japan, the Wii sold 12.73M there, while the PS4 will likely sell only about as well as the PS3. That means the PS4 ought to have a final lifetime deficit of at least 2 million in Japan. So, between the U.S. and Japan combined, the PS4 will likely fall at least 9M short of the Wii.

That leaves Europe and the rest of the world to make up the difference.

According to VGC, the PS4 was at 23M in Europe at the end of April. By comparison, they had the Wii at 22.5M at the end of April 2010. That means the PS4 is holding its own against the Wii in Europe just fine. Considering the Wii's sales in 2010 and beyond, the PS4 will continue to maintain and grow its lead over the Wii. VGC has the Wii's final tally in Europe as 33.75M units. The PS4 ought to be coming close to passing that mark by the end of next year. The PS4 could easily reach 45M units lifetime in Europe, which would make up for the deficit in the U.S. and Japan. If the PS4 can do at least as well as the PS3 in minor markets outside the NA/Europe/Japan trinity, the PS4 ought to end up at around 105M, just under 4M units ahead of the Wii.

So, I don't expect the PS4 to pass the Wii at least until after the PS5 is announced. And of course, these estimates are contingent on when said announcement is. I'm assuming a Nov. 2020 release date for the PS5 in these projections. If the PS5 isn't out until 2021 or 2022, the PS4's legs will be a bit better, perhaps pushing it above 110M. But for now I'm assuming the PS4 will just barely squeak past the Wii before the end of its life cycle. And I honestly do not think the PS4 will pass the Wii before the end of this decade.

It's already around what the PS3 and Wii did outside NA, Europe and Japan, and possibly a bit above, given it's undertracked somewhere on VGC.

The PS4 is actually doing some 20% of its weekly sales, according to VGC, outside of those three markets.

So that's some extra 9-10M you didn't account for, assuming it keeps selling proportionally the same there as elsewhere, as in your predictions.