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RolStoppable said:

1. I am not seeing a trend where console sales are getting more frontloaded with each passing generation. The only verifiable trend in generational console sales is that you can't count on there being a trend as things can change dramatically from one generation to the next.

First week of sales / lifetime sales:

Wii: 0.53M / 101M

WiiU: 0.47M / 14M

NS: 1.40M / ???

Either you believe NS will sell more than 250M or generations (at least for Nintendo) are becoming more front loaded.


RolStoppable said:

2. You could break down Wii U sales into 12 month periods, having the first such period going from mid-November 2012 to mid-November 2013. This way you get comparable timeframes and each one has the benefit of only one holiday season.

Too much work for me. Feel free to do it yourself and I'll accept your numbers.


RolStoppable said:

3. My prediction of more than 100m constitutes a minimum, hence the "more than". I didn't need to raise the stakes any higher, because the VGC consensus was so low. When people were predicting 30-40m units, then I would have already been far above the average with 70m or 80m. 100m is a nice round number and provides more than enough shock value; it was also the highest poll option in the thread where I originally posted this prediction. Using 110m, 120m etc. wouldn't have had any benefit for me, rather it would have only made it harder for me to be right.

It would benefit you if you came with a number instead of a (infinite) range because this way you're not as committed as I am, and then your critics are not really critics. They're just attacks from a person that doesn't quite understand how hard it is to make a real prediction.


RolStoppable said:

4. If you find the time to read my thread's original post, you'll come across a link to a prediction thread with a better poll. Your prediction of 20m isn't an outlier as it isn't far below the average of 30-40m. Most predictions were in the range of 20-50m at the time.

I have opened all the links from the OP and didn't find it. Please post it here.

Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M