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Smashchu2 said:
The Wii and DS are right on track to do that. It will really come down to how long they last for.

They are tracking well above the PS2 on a lifecycle basis. It depends on lifespan. Remember, doubling the installed base from 60m to 120m doesn't net you much more in terms of software sales due to userbase diversity, so Nintendo will likely replace them when software, not hardware, sales drop.