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Turkish on 10 June 2017
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Pemalite said:
Turkish said:

Doesnt really matter what the low end is doing, what matters is what technology is going to be the standard.

It actually does matter what the low-end is doing. The low-end is what governs what goes in a console.
Consoles are cheap, cost-sensitive devices, you don't get $1000 microprocessors in those little boxes, the cheaper something is, the more likely it becomes.

Consoles aren't using high-end graphics hardware. Not even Scorpio is using high-end PC hardware, it's using mid-range, coupled with a low-end CPU.
Scorpio is also not using HBM1 or HBM2 despite HBM1 being around for several years and HBM2 being widely available now... Why? Cost.
I don't think you fully comprehend how much interposers adds to the bill of materials, that's money that takes away from GPU or CPU performance.

Turkish said:

If industry is moving to HBM2, then that will be the logical choice as it'll get cheaper over time. If AMD's high end product line up consists of HBM2 onward, it should come to consoles as well.


And the industry is not moving onto HBM2. It is moving to GDDR6. HBM is for high-end and professional markets. Everything a console is not.


Turkish said:

8GB GDDR5 was expensive at the time, everybody was surprised they went with it, even Epic's Mark Rein. It all depends what the next technology is, if GDDR6 emerges as the winner, then it should be that.

I wasn't surprised. So that's not everybody.
With GDDR5 in the low-end at the time it was always a possibility.

GDDR6 isn't competing with HBM either. I don't think you fully comprehend it's positioning as a memory technology.


Turkish said:

But not by the time a console would launch in fall 2018. For the best, AMD's Vega will be more than enough to start next gen. A console with equivalent GTX 1080/Ti performance in 18 months will blow everyone's socks off.

Vega isn't going to be enough for next-gen. There is a chance it's not even going to be faster than the Geforce 1080Ti if the early leaked benchmarks are to be believed. (Grain of salt and all that.)
Geforce 1080/Ti is not next-gen. I am actually a PC gamer. I have played around with that level of hardware performance. It's not next gen. It's got some amazing performance. But next gen? Hardly.
The jump between the Playstation 3 and Playstation 4 or Xbox 360 to the Xbox One would have been more significant.

Next Gen usually brings with it a plethoria of new amazing effects, multiples more memory, multiples more performance, significantly improved efficiency.

***

I have typically been correct on my predictions on what hardware the Switch, Neo and Scorpio has ended up with, based purely on my hardware knowledge, hardware that was/was going to be available and where they sit as far as costs lay.

If Next-Gen starts in 18 months and is using Vega, then it's already going be old and outdated. I would expect a derivative of Navi at that point, not Vega... Or at-least a semi-custom NCU architecture that is a little bit of both.

Tulipanzo said:

I mean, give me a reason to turn on my XBox One. I'm waiting

Xbox 360 games.

"It actually does matter what the low-end is doing. The low-end is what governs what goes in a console"

No it doesnt, the high end dictates is what governs what goes in a console. The high end drives technology forward.

"Consoles aren't using high-end graphics hardware"

Yes they are, they are using high end graphics hardware

"Scorpio is also not using HBM1 or HBM2 despite HBM1 being around for several years and HBM2 being widely available now"

Because HBM1 is phased out, you dont see Sony going for GDDR4 for when GDDR5 was around the corner. If AMD's product line up goes HBM2 starting with Vega, thats what consoles will have going forward. HBM also makes the most sense to use in consoles due to their form factor. You must've been one of the most vocal people saying Sony couldnt get 8 gigs of GDDR5 ram in PS4 pre-announcement.


"And the industry is not moving onto HBM2. It is moving to GDDR6."

Industry != Nvidia, what would the industry do without precious Nvidia?

"HBM is for high-end and professional markets"

I dont think you fully comprehend the tech industry, there's a thing called Moore's law. HBM will become cheaper.

"Vega isn't going to be enough for next-gen."

Yes it will, even the Scorpio's gpu would be enough for next gen, and had it exclusives it would show the improvements over the Xbone and PS4.

"Geforce 1080/Ti is not next-gen. I am actually a PC gamer. I have played around with that level of hardware performance"

Again you dont understand what is being talked about. No PC game is next gen, there is no exclusives being made for your 1080 Ti, you are playing games and ports made for lower spec hardware to run in higher settings and res. If there was a console with a 1080 Ti with an exclusive made specifically for it, it would blow the current gen away. The 5 year old HD7870 in the PS4 is nothing special now, in a off the shell pc, but in a console it pumps out games that has better graphics than any PC game. Some of those include The Order, Uncharted, Driveclub, Horizon, God of War, Beyond, Death Stranding. These are just the facts since 1. multiplats are done with the lowest hw in mind(Xbox) 2. no triple A exclusive exists that's designed for the 1080 Ti.

"The jump between the Playstation 3 and Playstation 4 or Xbox 360 to the Xbox One would have been more significant."

No the jump would be greater. I think you need to do your research. PS3 400GFLOPZZ vs PS4 1800GFLOPZZ 4.5x increase

1080TI 10600 GFLOPZ = 5.9x increase

Such console would be more than ready for da next gen.

"If Next-Gen starts in 18 months and is using Vega, then it's already going be old and outdated. I would expect a derivative of Navi at that point"

I think Navi will barely be ready by fall 2018 in consumer hardware, maybe for a fall 2019 console. This is why I think MS should've done Xbox 2 next year instead of Scorpio now. The performance gap between Scorpio and 7nm Navi PS5 is gonna be astronomical, and it's gonna be augmented by the fact that PS5 will showcase brand new next gen games. When MS starts to shift to Scorpio only development in 2 years time, the Scorpio games aren't gonna look so hot.