Year 1 - Week 52 - Global Switch Sales vs WiiU/XboxOne/3DS/PS4

[VideoGameAccountant]

RolStoppable said:

barneystinson69 said:

Where exactly did I say the console would flop? 

Also, I expected 35 million sales IF it was a handheld and home console replacement (which its pretty much confirmed to have been). I don't know why early sales are an indication of future trends...

 

barneystinson69 said:

Oh please Rol. You know very well I explained the circumstances for that in order to happen, and I had two predictions. If it was a handheld and home console replacement, it would sell 35 million. If it was replacing just the Wii U but still selling as well as it has been so far, I would've eaten my hat. 

Yes, you had two predictions.

1. If Switch is only replacing the Wii U, it will sell less than the Wii U. You predicted a flop.
2. If Switch replaces Wii U and 3DS, it will sell less than half of those two systems combined. You predicted a flop.

That brings us back to the running gag: Think before you hit the submit button, barney.

Early sales are more often than not representative of future trends. The only exceptions are consoles that started slow and improved later on. There has yet to be a console that started fast and ended up being a flop. I am not talking about the launch month in this paragraph. It's the non-holiday weeks beyond the launch month that determine whether a console is a slow or a fast starter. Switch has started fast.

To add to what you said, systems that start weak and improve tend to still see lower relative sales. A good example is the 3DS. The system improved over its early launch disaster, but its still Nintendo's worst selling handheld. Microsoft once said something along the lines of the first to 10 million wins the race to 100 million. Nintendo's early sales are a good indicator of future success, as you pointed out.