| the_dengle said: Other variables? I reduced the situation to as few variables as possible. Your chart has dramatically increased the number of variables! No longer are we looking at the same games released at the same time or even in the same generation. Systems that sell well attract a ton of smaller titles specifically because those games can find success selling to a tiny fraction of a large user base. This is the nature of niche exclusives and shovelware! I'll delve into all this info later, but right off the bat it seems like a sloppy interpretation of data. That's why I was comparing like-for-like. Hell, this kind of reading might actually 'punish' the PS4 for having exclusives like Gravity Rush 2 just because a minuscule percentage of its owners will buy such games. And I know that's first-party, but the platform attracts more exclusives like that by having a large user base. |
There are less variables, but the scale of your comparison also means the effect of those variables can be more significant. VGC's margin for error (which if i remember correctly is targeted at 15%, but i'd have to check with Machina), potential digital ratio variations, 1st party marketing deals, game series brand loyalty, etc, can all have a significant effect on your results. Even VR directly effects one of the games you list.
The graph increases the number of variables, but there's an advantage to that. The effect of almost every variable should be accounted for, and across a significant time-frame. You felt your original comparison was enough to conclude that my "mystery variable" was too weak to overcome a 10% install base difference, yet here a far more comprehensive comparison implies it can (again, can) appear consistently in the face of almost all of them.
Even when two consoles have very different types of library, the effect still seems to follow the general curve. Amusingly (though in my opinion this will be in part just chance from other variables), the PS4 and WiiU scale almost linearly.
Again, there's a reason i didn't bring up this data before. We can't know the full effect of every variable, so we can't know 100% how accurately the graph's implications reflect reality. My argument has only ever been "it can have an effect", so such a macro comparison wasn't necessary. Despite that though, i honestly can't fathom how you can entirely dismiss a trend that has remained relatively consistent across 11 platforms, several with totally different types of owners and library, spanning 20+ years. We don't know exactly how much of a role it plays, but unless you have a treasure trove of data you're not telling anyone about, you at minimum have to acknowledge the possibility of it being a relevant factor. The end result shows a pretty clear trend, and end results have been sufficient for you until now.
