the_dengle said:
I have demonstrated thoroughly that a small library relative to the PS4 has not benefitted XBO releases one bit. The relationship between the two is actually the opposite of what you suggest. The other half of this demonstration -- that the PS4's large library and frequent releases have not been detrimental to sales of individual PS4 games -- is more important. It ties into my original point that Zelda was the best-selling game this week because people want to play Zelda, and not because the PS4 has too many games or whatever. But that wasn't directed at you. |
No, you've only shown that other variables have been more significant in the limited time-frame viewed. But fine, data-ahoy: 
The above shows the relationship between the number of games in a console's library (at least as far as VGC have sales tracked in some capacity), and what percentage of that library is bought by the average owner of the system. I've included all Sony, MS, and Nintendo home consoles from gen 5, 6, 7, and 8. The graph implies:
1) A very strong correlation between the size of a console's library, and the average sales of each game. The more games you have, the more games your customers need to ignore. 11 to 12 games per person seems to be some kind of limit so far.
2) More games result in people buying more on average, however that average rises considerably slower than that of the library's overall size (at the extreme ends, the PS2 having 1300%~ more games than the WiiU only results in a 64%~ increase in purchases).
3) The correlation is not 100% strict, with some consoles even falling slightly out of the curve. I'd say this is expected, given the plethora of other variables we know should be involved in some capacity.
Despite how compelling this graph is as evidence for my point, I've avoided bringing it up until now because i think its use is limited in the context of the point I've actually been trying to make. Even accounting for our inability to control for several potential variables (e.g. "How significant an effect does popular systems getting spammed by low-quality titles have?" or "Does the rise of digital strengthen or weaken the correlation?" or "How significant an effect do core players have versus more casual ones?", etc etc), it won't consistently predict specific events. However, this trend being relatively consistent at the macro level does imply it's always a possibility for the elements that make it up. Hence I've focused on saying library size can have an effect even on individual titles, rather than it must. The smaller the scale, the more relevant other factors like popularity become.
Looking back to Zelda: I don't believe it's selling because of a limited library (the evidence actually points to Zelda selling the Switch), however i do think the Switch having released with a larger library could have made it sell less, or could have limited the sales of the games releasing with it (especially because, as you noted, supply constraints could compound the issue). How much larger? It's hard to say, we don't really have enough data. The breaking point is almost certainly lower than in the graph (given we're dealing with months rather than years to decades), but that's all i feel confident in saying.
I hope this all explains my point satisfactorily, because i think I've found the limits to "How much time will i spend on one reply in an internet discussion with a psyduck?" 
If you notice an input errors in the graph, let me know and i'll adjust it. I double checked it all, but it's almost 4am so i might have missed something.
