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zygote on 20 May 2017
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Bofferbrauer said:
RolStoppable said:

I fear that you are being serious.

Considering that Switch is still supply constrained in the USA after 11 weeks and reseller prices are above $350, Switch is going to keep doing 60k+ per week in the USA alone. The Xbox One was selling 60k per week globally at that point.

VGC numbers are several weeks behind, but in real time Switch is already ahead of the Xbox One and will continue to grow the gap in its favor. The only systems to provide competition for Switch on these charts are the 3DS and PS4. The 3DS had a bad start, but kicked into a notably higher gear after its price cut and sold more than 10m units in its first 52 weeks.

Based on trajectory, Switch is most comparable to the PS4. It doesn't look like Switch will need a price cut before hitting 10m.

Of course NATO's serious, he's betting on it in fact: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8410153

He thinks the Switch will drop down in sales after a couple of weeks because the Xbox ONE and PS4 did so after the holiday season

It would actually be a better comparison to look at the PS Vita numbers since that system launched in most areas in Feb.  As you see, in the weeks that lined up with those post-Holiday dips for Xbox One and PS4, Vita actually has a number higher than its launch.  If we were to proportion the Switch's number with how well it has been doing against the Vita's numbers, then we might get a pretty nice approximation for how well the Switch might do this year.

So lets have some meaningless fun, because I want to.  If we assume that factory stock drained significantly on that first figure and airbussing stock to meet end of year reporting from april numbers, using the more consistent last two entry comparisons, then on average Switch is about +250k ontop of Vita numbers on normal weeks, +880k on the heighest stock weeks.  This of course is a very very crude estimate and might be complete BS and assumes that Vita sold out of stock at every shipment similar to Switch and also assumes that Vita and Switch production is at all comparable, and that Sony did not cut back on Vita production due to not selling through stock. In other words, lets pull numbers out of the air with just enough statistical enthusiasm to make it seem worthwile.

322,488   +1,078,834
107,451   +127,446
51,634      +185,140
46,162      +263,226
19,756      +259,372
16,319      (+250,000)
21,618      (+260,000)
19,756      (+259,000)
16,704      (+250,000)
85,252      (+420,000)
379,216    (+1,000,000)
131,907    (+560,000)
97,253      (+450,000)
75,023      (+420,000)
67,904      (+400,000)   This puts Switch number at around 7 to 8 million, with an error of however many million it might take to make it accurate.  How's that for a meaningless number?  lol.

I will say though that nothing like the current sales rate of the Switch with its launch timeline

 

has ever been seen before, so who knows how this is going to end.