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It's far too early to call Switch a "Wii," but it also seems pretty certain that, at least in its early days, it's going to do far better than the Wii U. Hell, I expect it to possibly outsell the Wii U's lifetime sales this year alone. I do agree, though, that the actual demand for Switch is difficult to tell at the moment. It's definitely high, but quantifying it is difficult without any word on how much stock is actually out in the wild. Anecdotally, I bought a Switch in April at one of my local Walmarts, so there is some stock out there, it just seems very sporadic. Looking at Japan, which sold a little over 200k last month, I'd have to think Ninty would ship more systems to the US, so I'd expect it sold about 350-400k in April and will likely do a little lower in May without extra stock shipped for Mario Kart, though that's just a pure guess.