Miyamotoo said: Around 4 weeks until Switch hits 1m in Japan. Also only around 6 weeks of sales until Switch take 3DS in same time frame (Switch is 123k behing 3DS in same time frame).
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It'll be close. If Switch averages 45k weekly it will have very little wiggle room, only about 5k to spare. Then 3DS had a relatively strong week 17 due to the release of Ocarina of Time 3D. So I'd say 6 weeks or less is optimistic, 8 weeks if you want to be a little cautious and allow Switch to drop to the 40-45k range a few times. That's assuming no sudden bursts of new shipments or surprising drops in sales.