Analysts Warn of "struggle" For xbox.

[famousringo]

alephnull said:
To all of you who cannot understand how install bases can go down should look up ensemble forecasting. Hopefully this will fuel a degree of introspection. Perhaps you might, if for but a moment, consider the possibility that someone who does this for a living just slightly more informed than you about his life's work. Every single post I have read has either outright stated or not so subtly implied the analysts must all be completely incompetent. Nobody seems to have pointed out that while fishyjoe's graph's numbers are off, the ordering of consoles has so far been correct. The anti-intellectualism and evolving group-think on this site is likely worthy of a sociology phd thesis.

I find it pretty amusing that you defend these analysts as intellectuals, and then condemn this site for group-think. The historical record is pretty clear that every analysis published was drinking the same kool-aid before this generation launched. It's the Playstation brand, Playstation will win, Playstation is synonymous with console gaming. The joke is that 18 months later, they're just watering down the same debunked ideas rather than face the obvious empirical reality. 

There may be a fair number of people who sing the same song on this site, but they base their ideas on factual data, rather than denying facts in favour of prior assertions. Do you really think that this site has a more serious group-think problem than the analysts who release charts with numbers that don't even agree with current empirical data, let alone present reasonable future trends?

 I always thought that part of being an intellectual was acknowledging when the facts don't fit the hypothesis and refining your theory. These guys just keep adjusting the facts and restating the same hypothesis.