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To all of you who cannot understand how install bases can go down should look up ensemble forecasting. Hopefully this will fuel a degree of introspection. Perhaps you might, if for but a moment, consider the possibility that someone who does this for a living just slightly more informed than you about his life's work. Every single post I have read has either outright stated or not so subtly implied the analysts must all be completely incompetent. Nobody seems to have pointed out that while fishyjoe's graph's numbers are off, the ordering of consoles has so far been correct. The anti-intellectualism and evolving group-think on this site is likely worthy of a sociology phd thesis.