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The pessimist says: It's the first gud game since Zelda, of course it's a hit!
The optimist says: Mario Kart 7 and Mario Kart Wii had huge install bases, and this still sold MOAR!

Who's right?

I'm on the optimist side, the sales news around MK8 shows Switch is in position to outstrip not just Wii U but 3DS too.

Edit: excited to see if this momentum can transfer to Splatoon 2.  I think that game has a bit of an X Factor to it having only one iteration to go by.