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Bofferbrauer on 28 April 2017
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thismeintiel said:
BraLoD said:

I think you missed his point.
PS2 lags were completely different, they kept for years after the PS3 came.
That accounts on both the PS2 was really cheap and completely one sided dominating anything and the PS3 was up to a rough start.

PS4 has more competition than the PS2 ever had on its entire lifespan by the end of this year, and they learned from the PS3 mistakes so the PS5 should not get eaten by the PS4 and the sales should flow more normally when it comes.

That will prevent the PS4 from having the same kind of lags the PS2 did, and eventually failing to match its total sales by a good amount, even if it's still tracking ahead of it.

While I agree it won't match the PS2. Sony has done a couple of smart things to help its legs. For one, by using less custom chips, the price of the PS4 will be able to drop more in line with the PS2. The PS3 didn't drop to $249 til it's 5th year on the market. PS4 will hit that this year, its 4th. He'll, it may even see a cut to $199.  A cut that happened so late in the PS3's lifespan, it made little difference.  That $199 price came along with the launch of the PS4. When the PS5 comes, the PS4 will most likely be $149, with an actual chance Sony can get it down to $99-$129.  That'll do wonders for its legs.

Then, you have the Pro, which uses the same chips as the PS4, only overclocked and doubled up on the GPU. It's going to be enhancing PS4 games til they stop making them and will make it cheaper to make for Sony, allowing for faster price cuts. This year it will definitely be dropping to $349, but there is a possibility Sony gets aggressive and launches a Pro Slim for $299. If so, we're going to see a nice boost in its sales for the coming months.  And I imagine once that thing hits $199, it will be making up ~40% of the PS4's sales.

Like I said, I don't expect the PS4 to beat the PS2, but I don't think we need to worry about its legs. Even after the arrival of the PS5. There's going to be a $250-$300 price gap between the two.  And probably a $150-$200 gap between it and the Pro.

You need to brush up your tech knowledge, otherwise you knew the bolded parts are not viable. They are possible, but require heavy subventionning, which is not what you want to do if your console is nearing EoL.

Prices for RAM Chips have basically doubled since summer last year, with no sign of slowing down or even getting cheaper again. Additionally, GDDR5 is based on DDR3, and the latter is already slowly getting phased out. This eliminates production capacities, risking to drive the price for it's RAM even higher. The RAM alone probably ain't too far of an 80$ pricetag righ now and it's rise is certainly in the way of any price reduction wishes from the console manufacturers to some degree.

The APU Chip in the PS4 ain't too small either, reducing the amount of Chips per wafer (microprocessing chips get purchased on a per wafer basis, so the more fit on one, the cheaper they are) and thus keeping it's price relatively high, though not near Cell regions. but tht one had the advantage of regular die shrinks, which the PS4 chip doesn't have.

Die Shrinks also reduce the power consumption, which allow for a smaller casing if the drop is substancial enough. It was from 28nm to 14nm for the Slim, but the Pro is already produced in 14 nm, and even Intel is having huge problems with their 10nm process, so this rules out a PS4 Pro slim or a PS4 Superslim for a forseeable future

All other parts don't change much in pricing, so they won't get much cheaper either. All in all, I don't see the PS4 dropping below 199$ anytime soon unless they want to subvention the console more strongly again.