Even a timed exclusive deal would be phenomenally expensive for Sony, so consider me highly sceptical on that front. Still, Sony do have a great relationship with Capcom and they have made others deals together this generation, so it's not impossible.
I guess it mostly comes down to how valuable Sony consider Japan. With many previously 3DS only IP likley to make the jump to HD over the next few years because of the Switch, there's a chance we'll see some also start appearing on the PS4 if Sony can make it an attractive enough proposition. MH5 wouldn't win Japan for Sony (potability and Nintendo's own IP are just too huge an advantage to overcome with 1 game), but even a timed deal would put them in a much stronger position than they'd otherwise be in. If they consider the overall potential benefits of that position worth it, then i could see them being will to pay what Capcom want.
Having MH5 on the PS4 at all would be a fairly big deal though. It'd give current PS4 owners one less reason to get a Switch, and make the PS4 itself a lot more attractive than it'd be without it.
