no.
very very unlikely.
Splatoon was a surprise success not because of the TYPE of game it was, but rather because it was a new very cartoony IP. Its a shooter, and shooters tend to kill it with casual audiences. Splatoon as a new IP is not comparable with ARMS because it stems from a much larger and more followed genre
the fighting genre however basically outside of Mortal Kombat and Super Smash Bros does not really usually sell THAT high. The odds of a new fighting IP on a Nintendo console getting to 3 million? like zero. In fact its probably a 50/50 chance whether it even becomes a hit. But frankly 'hit' level for Arms would probably be like 2 million in sales.
Its a glorified Punchout game with extendable arms and some customization. There's just no way it sells THAT well, regardless of how good it is. a fairly limited fighter that's brad new is not going to do that well. If it were a Team Fortress clone or something then maybe, but I honestly can't think of a cartoony fighting game that's broken out. Or even a regular fighting game. For Honor is literally the only thing that hits my brain in the last few years and that's primarily due to the PC community
