| StarDoor said: In 2016, Sony consoles outsold Nintendo consoles by 11 million units, the largest gap (in Sony's favor) in VGChartz history. Of course, this was the PS4's second peak year and the Wii U's death year. But let's imagine that the gap remains 11 million forever. The current gap between PlayStation and Nintendo is roughly 200 million. For Sony to catch up at its 2016 pace, it would take over 18 years. Of course, Nintendo just launched the Switch, and I don't see the PS4 being up year-on-year by a significant amount, if at all. Since the 3DS and Wii U combined sold 8.5 million units in 2016, it's almost guaranteed that the gap will be smaller this year, even if the 3DS immediately stops being sold, because the Switch alone will sell more than that. In short, it'll take decades of Nintendo screwing up for that to happen, and that assumes that Sony will continue to make dedicated gaming hardware at all. Who knows what the gaming landscape will look like in 2040? |
last year is an anamoly though, everyone was calling it a dead year for Nintendo since they essentially deliberately abandoned the Wii U. Its not the norm to use as an example.
Sony's biggest ever hardware advantage in certain years against Nintendo was the PS2/PSP over Gamecube/GBA era. For Sony to hypothetically close the distance in a DECADE from now they would need to annually probably do BETTER every year (compartively to Nintendo) than they did in that period to come close.
it won't happen.
I also agree with you that at some point there will be giant question marks in the future of whether game consoles will continue to exist, at least home ones. AT some point if they get advanced enough (say a PS6?), the question may begin to creep into people's minds what's the point or difference of going with that instead of a standard PC. For obvious reasons I can see handhelds potentially having longer life into the future since dedicated portable devices is where society seems sort of headed (look at how many people use tablets for specific reasons, whether art, or educational, or now video game focused like the Switch)
