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The reason people think it's $499 is because MS keeps going on and on about it being a premium product for a premium price, even comparing it to the Elite controller. I believe they even hinted at it being more expensive than the Pro. It doesn't help that DF also believes it'll be $499.

As for PS5, we probably have ~2 1/2 years before it launches. That plenty of time for Ryzen and Vega to drop in price to put into a PS5 at $399. Even if Sony has to sell it at a slight loss.