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I'm going for Spain, colonelstubbs is right, they are always posted up as one of the world's top sides but never manage to pull it off. BUT, they have one of the youngest squads in the "top tier nations" so it's not entirely unexpected that they choke under the pressure.

They'll start to rise up soon, and I'm going to say Euro 2008 is the time they'll do it. (Plus Torres is in freakishly good form at the moment).