Europe- economy, immigrants, and a potential inspiration

[palou]

bonzobanana said:

palou said:

Your debtclock is nonesense, Germany has paid off further debt (made a budget surplus) in the last 3 years (one of the few countries to do so.) You also have to take inflation in account; a debt that stays the same is becoming easier and easier to pay, over the years, because that money represents less and less of what you earn. This number is going down quite dramatically, from both a growing GDP and the fairly unique situation of Germany actually paying back their debts, slowly: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/government-debt-to-gdp (It's now at around 69%)

 

The German government's fiscal situation is considered so ridiculously safe that it now the interest rate is negative if you loan money for 5 years: https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/germany 

Germany would actually be making money on any new debt they take.

 

The US, in comparision: https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us

 

Also, irregardles of what you believe or what is the case for you personaly, Germany exports an absolutely ridiculous ammount, in comparision to GDP, more than half of what China exports, despite having a total economy a sixth of the size. The European Union exports more than anyone else (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports).

Here's a list of countries by exports per capita. You will notice that Europe is doing quite decently there, too: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports_per_capita

What do you mean 'my' debt clock its a compilation of figures supplied by actual governments and based on true figures. I have no connection with the site and seems pretty much inline with other sites anyway. It's not about what I believe. Also negative interests  rates is a way of reducing costs with the effect of lowering the value of the currency and being deflationary but obviously banks who  bought such government bonds struggle to get rid of them and less banks are interested in investing in such bonds in the future.

Exports can take many forms I was really talking about consumer goods in general and manufactured goods. I already stated there was a feel good factor and German exports have increased thanks to the value of the euro but there is also a general reduction of manufacturing capacity in Europe, not so much at the higher end though. How practical will it be to keep European car plants open when China finally gets their shit together with regard cars. They have decimated most other manufacturing industries.

Can you honestly see many of the countries that share the euro currency paying off their debt, there will be many more bailouts required in the future for the simple reason that negative interest rates means no more loans to prop up such countries  so likely more government to government bailouts required.

The german birthrate is also wierdly low and immigration is falsely skewing that figure higher than the native population's true figure who tend to have much lower birthrates.  This has more long term effects rather than short term though.

Not trying to be negative but there is a long term trend of power moving away from the US and Europe to Asia. Don't read too much into per capita figures because they can give a false impression based on the huge number of Chinese people who don't contribute to exports. It's more about final figures.

 

 

Government bond interest rates are not decided by the government. I think you are confusing it with the federal funds rate.

 

The bond interest rate is the lowest amount of interest for which the Government can loan the money it needs. A negative interest rate shows an extremely high confidence of investors that the German government is capable of repaying its loans. 

 

Here is data concerning the German government budget: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/government-budget

A blue number means that the government is NOT taking new debts.

The US, for example, is taking new debt (which can be sustainable, as long as income grows at a faster rate than the debt. It's a bit high, currently) http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-budget

 

If you actually read the info on the debt clock, http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/germany, you would notice that it does not represent government debt, but rather a hypothetical government debt if germany would be pushing its own regulations to the maximum. The Maastricht treaty is a guideline that sets a limit to the amount of debt that the government is allowed to take each year. 

 

For the last few years, Germany has chosen to repay debt instead of taking new sums. Which is reflected by the fact that Germany currently has a public debt to GDP ratio bellow 70%, while your website is reporting 78%. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/government-debt-to-gdp