Europe- economy, immigrants, and a potential inspiration

[bonzobanana]

palou said:

bonzobanana said:
The german situation doesn't seem much different to a lot of Europe.

http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/germany

A large amount of debt per head, also pension debt not listed for public sector worker pensions and they are tied to a currency where many countries have crippling debt like Italy at 140% gdp. At the moment Germany has a feel good factor as being linked to such economies makes German exports more competitive because those countries devalue the currency but the Euro is also a huge liability.

It's all getting really messy in Europe with huge problems pushed into the future rather than faced by more borrowing, same in the USA. It's like the future is a place where we think we will be rich again and these debts can be easily paid and so we can borrow massively today.

I don't think I've got anything in my house that is German made or French. My tumble dryer is Italian I think. My car is korean. Much of my white goods are Turkish as is my TV. All my PCs and consoles are Chinese and what stuff I have that has European brands is often made elsewhere if not Chinese possibly eastern european countries. I have a range of bikes and most are taiwanese or chinese or a mixture of both. I'm sure I probably do have something German or French made just nothing major springs to mind.

I mean you look at this;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Yn5kIpIrv0&t

The factory looks amazing, they mention only a few of the brands they manufacture for, brands from across Europe and the US. Quality looks brilliant too. The economies of scale are incredible. How can Europe or the US compete with that especially with the chinese currency kept artificially low in value to aid exports.

Your debtclock is nonesense, Germany has paid off further debt (made a budget surplus) in the last 3 years (one of the few countries to do so.) You also have to take inflation in account; a debt that stays the same is becoming easier and easier to pay, over the years, because that money represents less and less of what you earn. This number is going down quite dramatically, from both a growing GDP and the fairly unique situation of Germany actually paying back their debts, slowly: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/government-debt-to-gdp (It's now at around 69%)

 

The German government's fiscal situation is considered so ridiculously safe that it now the interest rate is negative if you loan money for 5 years: https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/germany 

Germany would actually be making money on any new debt they take.

 

The US, in comparision: https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us

 

Also, irregardles of what you believe or what is the case for you personaly, Germany exports an absolutely ridiculous ammount, in comparision to GDP, more than half of what China exports, despite having a total economy a sixth of the size. The European Union exports more than anyone else (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports).

Here's a list of countries by exports per capita. You will notice that Europe is doing quite decently there, too: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports_per_capita

What do you mean 'my' debt clock its a compilation of figures supplied by actual governments and based on true figures. I have no connection with the site and seems pretty much inline with other sites anyway. It's not about what I believe. Also negative interests  rates is a way of reducing costs with the effect of lowering the value of the currency and being deflationary but obviously banks who  bought such government bonds struggle to get rid of them and less banks are interested in investing in such bonds in the future.

Exports can take many forms I was really talking about consumer goods in general and manufactured goods. I already stated there was a feel good factor and German exports have increased thanks to the value of the euro but there is also a general reduction of manufacturing capacity in Europe, not so much at the higher end though. How practical will it be to keep European car plants open when China finally gets their shit together with regard cars. They have decimated most other manufacturing industries.

Can you honestly see many of the countries that share the euro currency paying off their debt, there will be many more bailouts required in the future for the simple reason that negative interest rates means no more loans to prop up such countries  so likely more government to government bailouts required.

The german birthrate is also wierdly low and immigration is falsely skewing that figure higher than the native population's true figure who tend to have much lower birthrates.  This has more long term effects rather than short term though.

Not trying to be negative but there is a long term trend of power moving away from the US and Europe to Asia. Don't read too much into per capita figures because they can give a false impression based on the huge number of Chinese people who don't contribute to exports. It's more about final figures.