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MTZehvor on 01 March 2017
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Turkish said:
MTZehvor said:

Oh, please. Don't cite Superdata predictions. They make Michael Patcher look like Lyn Cassady. These are the guys that mispredicted the overpredicted the amount of revenue Super Mario Run would make by two times as much as it actually brought in. 7-10 million is an absolutely ludicrous estimate for a new IP, especially one that's console exclusive.

I brought up Metroid because, as you'll recall, this discussion originally centered around whether Naughty Dog had broken new ground by putting female characters on the box art (and honestly had nothing to do with Horizon). I mentioned games like Metroid, Tomb Raider, Bayonetta, Final Fantasy, and Heavenly Sword as titles that have featured playable female protagonists exclusively on the front in order to make the point that, no, this is not new ground being broken. It's an admirable decision on ND's part to resist whatever pressure they were under, certainly. But this isn't a new revelation for the video game industry. AC Syndicate and Dishonored 2 tie into this as well, because while neither has an exclusive female protagonist, TLoU also does not. 

Simply put, it's irrelevant whether Metroid is "dead" (it isn't) or whether Bayonetta is "bomba" (whatever that means), because the point is solely that these games broke that same ground years, if not decades, before TLoU.

Oh, yeah, and "people" always complain that their favorite game doesn't get a high enough rating.

Horizon definitely has the potential to sell 7 to 10 million copies, it is the next big Sony IP, it's marketed very heavily by them. Didn't even know Pachter also predicted it.

Im not claiming ND broke new ground, was just asking if they did. But I think they did, cuz in the past 3-4 years there's been a huge profileration of female protags in gaming, while before it was the exception. You said Metroid and Tomb Raider. Samus Aran without her suit was never on the cover except for Other M. TR is a staple franchise that exists since 1996. Im just saying Horizon is the 2nd franchise since Tomb Raider thats gonna sell blockbuster numbers with a female protag.

...Patcher didn't say that. I was saying that he looks like a good predictor next to Superdata, who has been wrong about almost everything they've predicted in the past. 

I can understand being excited about Horizon, but 7 million is just absurdly optimistic. There hasn't been a console exclusive new IP to sell more than 5 million units since Crash Bandicoot (excluding Wii Sports, which largely benefitted from being bundled with basically every Wii system sold within the first 3 years). Even the original Halo only managed 5 million units.

With that said, if you're still confident in blockbuster numbers, how about a little wager? Superdata predicts Horizon will break the 6 million unit mark by this year's end on pace to the supposed 7-10 million units sold. If it reaches that number by year's end, I'll give you a month of sig control, and vice versa if that's not the case. Sound reasonable?