I think it'll be in 100 or over 100,000 range since Ninty have the production of 2.4 million already, and when MGS4 hits they will ship and sold 500,000 units and then instant downer for MGS4
end of core gaming days prediction:
E3 2006-The beginning of the end. Wii introduced
E3 2008- Armageddon. Wii motion plus introduced. Wii Music. Reggie says Animal crossing was a core game. Massive disappointment. many Wii core gamers selling their Wii.
E3 2010- Tape runs out
http://www.fivedoves.com/letters/march2009/ICG_Tape_runs_out.jpg