Mrstickball wrote:
The big issue with everyone bashing the analyists:
You are no better. Everyone assumes that since the Wii is in the lead (and by everyone, 90% of people here think the Wii will have a 2:1 lead over the next system, or 1:1 with the PS3/360 combined). Everyone bashes the analyists, but you are doing the same thing. What are you doing only using arguments based on past systems to pidgenhole the future.
Well, you have to look at the past to predict the future. The issue is what you look at.
Most analysts put too much faith in brand. Companies fail, brands fail, industries fail, markets disappear. A good business plan is universal.
Good analysts realized by E3 last year that Wii was following in the footsteps of PONG, Atari 2600, NES, Game Boy, PS1 and DS. There's a 35 year history of products like Wii, which cut cost to developers and/or price to consumers and increased appeal to developers and consumers at the same time. There is a big difference between analyzing the specifics of the business plans behind all these products and finding the common themes, and simply picking a console to win based on 10 years of brand dominance. Its the difference between the good analysts who picked Wii to win without seeing ANY sales data, and the analysts who persist to come up with reasons the PS3 might recover.
Sean Malstrom, in his article "Why Wii Won," published Nov 20, 2006.
“How can the seventh generation be over already?” you ask. “Are you not jinxing it? We must witness sales performance before we declare a winner.”
Oh, you need to stop thinking about the machines and more about the business strategies involved. Sales performance is merely a reflection, a type of ‘lag’ that appears as the business strategies undergo their thing. Around 80% of a console’s success is dependent before that console is even launched.
http://thewiikly.zogdog.com/article.php?article=89&ed=10
Like it or not, there were people outlining exactly why the Wii won before it was even launched. The fact that both those people and pro analysts were looking at the past to make their predictions does not put them in the same boat. The people who's predictions are being confirmed by the sales data did a good job; those way off base did a bad job.
Some people picked Wii for the wrong reasons, to be sure, but just like the people picking PS3 to win, they are usually looking at companies, brands and the boxes themselves, not the business plans behind them, and that's something pretty easy to pick out.
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.
