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I don't know about that.

I think it will do fairly well, but I don't see it becoming a breakout sensation, a la Splatoon.

I think Splatoon was (and is) so beloved because it changed expectations on a hugely popular genre. It made shooter fans out of folks who didn't really like shooters. The competitive scene is robust (but accessible), and the way Nintendo released content piece by piece (although super frustrating for some people, including me) kept enthusiasm strong.

I'm unsure if Arms can create that same environment - one that's super competitive, highly-social, and, somehow, accessible for all skill levels.