| RolStoppable said: Well yes, that will come too. We've had a build-up for years of Nintendo supposedly being on the brink of calling it quits in the hardware business. The waves of retaliation will be enormous, especially when you take into consideration the current general consensus on Switch's chances to be successful. It's going to be similar to Splatoon sales predictions, but by a magnitude of at least ten times greater. |
I hope this won't start some sort of bitter argument, but I am curious to know. So consider this me asking a candid question.
By all inications, you seem to believe that the NS will go onto sell Wii like numbers. Or at the very worst sell over 80M consoles. Why? What makes you thik that?
To avoid any conflict, let me make my position on this clear and state my reasons. I hope when answering me you don't attack whatevr MY reasons are fro thinking what I do and instead just give me what your own reasons are.
I believe the NS will sell no more than 50M consoles. Which isn't bad but actually really good. And here is why.
- The NS straddles a world between home and handheld console game. Looking at it from a math perspective, their last "home" console sold around 15M, their last handheld console is selling around 65M consoles. An average of both will be around 40M. This is assuming that its successful on the grounds of it being a hybrid console. it can't be looked at individually s one or the other.
- If we look at the wiiU as a marker for the NS potential, then it will be bad all round, if we look at the 3DS as a marker, then we must consider that there is probably a good deal of people that didn't only buy multiple 3DS consoles, but bought one and a wiiU. Basically, the NS succeeding, kinda means the relevance of a dedicated portabe gaming console (3DS) is reduced, because technically, the NS is also a dedicated portable gaming console.
- Third parties are important. Contrary to what nintendo would like to have anyone believe. The evidence suggests that outside the Wii, the only nintendo hardware that has sold more than 40M consoles, is the Super Nintendo. That console existed the last time nintendo had any kinda real presence in the third party scene. And this is over a period of over 20 years.
- On a handheld front, nintendo is without equal, and some could look at the success of their handhelds as indication of how successful the NS would be, but I think this will be a mistake. First off, looking at the data again, there is a drop of almost 60% when looking at sales of the DS (154M) compared to that of the 3DS(65M). Which can clearly be explained by the massive shrink in the dedicated handheld market entirely due to the growth of mobile devices.So it will be senseless to gauge the success of the NS for its mobile prowess without considerring how different a market it is now.
- The price, as a handheld, the NS is very very very expensive. The DS launched at $130, the 3DS at $250 and had its price slashed by almost $100 within its first 6 months or so. As a home console, its a very very expensive underpowered machine. The only thing to justify the cost of the NS right now is if looking at it as a hybrid. Its left to be seen how important that "feature" is going to be to everyone. Cause this basically means we are banking on a market that we do not yet know how strong it could be or not. How many people really want a hybrid? Cause thats its biggest strenght. It cannot sell well as a handheld at its current price, and it cannot sell well as a dedicated console with its current price, power and library.
