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Pemalite on 31 January 2017
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Intrinsic said:

As for Navi, AMD and Global foundries announced last year that they expect to begin "risk" production in 2018. But also said that they expect to to have Zen+, Vega 20 and Navi chips on helves by 2020. That descripency from 2018-2020 is because risk production is just glorified speak for extremely low yeild and expensive fabrication. Until they iron out all the fabrication kinks.

Sounds like you have paid attention to one of my discussions. Haha



mutantsushi said:

I think Holiday 2019 is very plausible, 7nm Zen+/Navi will have been optimizing yield for more than year by then.
They can still in parallel sell low price point Slimmed Pro with x-gen compatability ala Scorpio/Bone or PS4/3,
so a higher than optimal price needn't overly tank unit sales, hardcore early adopters will be ready for new gen.
I don't see later than Holiday 2020.

Likewise interesting to see what MS will do, will they match PS5 intro date or wait a year+ and target higher $/spec?


That's *if* 7nm isn't delayed. Global Foundries has a terrible track record in delaying new processes.

With that said, if Global Foundries pulls it off, they might have an advantage over Samsung and TSMC and that translates well for us.

I am predicting a similar perfomance delta between the Xbox One and Scorpio that we will see with Scorpio and Microsoft's next console, might be the smallest generational jump yet... And considering that there is diminishing returns of performance to graphics quality... Well.

Or... We could recognize the fact that the Playstation 4 Pro and Scorpio kinda' makes this console generation unique... And may even prolong it.

Intrinsic said:

MS won't really have a choice. All this realease stuff really all boils down to availability of tech.

Exactly. If the tech doesn't exist or isn't cheap enough, then the tech can't be used.

mutantsushi said:

Tech solely dictates release date, yet Scorpio will launch on same process as Pro a year later?  

There is more to a process than just the "nm" it's advertised at.

For example Samsung's 14nm process has 4 generations... The jump from 1st generation to 2nd generation brought a 15% reduction in power consumption and a 15% increase in switching speed... That adds up after a few generations of similar improvements at the same fabrication process.

Plus "14nm" is just advertising, Samsung 14nm Finfet for instance uses a 20nm BEOL... And they still require double patterning.




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