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My prediction is 2020.

2021 would be ideal but I feel they don't want to give MS a chance to launch early so they'll target 2020.

3 full years now is January 2020. So if they launched October 2020 it would be 3 years and 9 months. Basically this gen would have been 7 years. The perfect length.

And yes the ps5 will be a true 4k console and I feel this tech will have matured nicely by then. TV adoption of 4k should be good by then too.