Here in the UK a lot of prices have fallen for Switch games before launch and the console now has a value bundle from Game. All indications are that many people have cancelled orders with perhaps some of them being scalpers. I don't know about elsewhere but this looks almost certain to have a worse launch than wii u. It could be a brexit effect of people being more conservative with their money or due to the fact the launch is after Christmas rather than before but at this point it looks like something that is going to fail for sure. The reasons for this has been discussed already but it does look like this is happening in the uk.
You only have to look at old wii u sales threads to see how over optimistic VGchartz users were. The average expected figure was 40 million with some claiming up to 150 million and no one dared to say a figure as low as 14-15 million.
Also since the Switch official announcement there seems much more interest in buying a wii u for the new Zelda, people who really want to play it but don't want a Switch.
Again a UK perspective but in fairness a market where Xbox does very well and is close behind Playstation.
Also there is a price shock to the Switch, sterling isn't as valuable as it once was so Switch pricing is surprising high for games and this is a huge turn-off actually being a lot more expensive than ps4 and xbone games. As you can imagine for a very weak format technically like Switch this is highly negative. £50 can buy you up to 5 discounted ps4 or xbone older but graphically amazing games compared to 1 Switch game like Bomberman.
I don't think anyone should be surprised if the Switch fails it doesn't take a genius to work out quite honestly. You only have to look at what its competing with and their price level. It's a high risk product which is obvious to anyone. It doesn't mean it can't carve out a small slice of the gaming industry but something like lifetime sales of 8-15 million should be on the table unless new much reduced pricing or a new sku comes in.
