Definitely MS. As others have said, MS is focusing more on PC, now. That means less cash for Xbox and it no longer has exclusives. If the Scorpio fails, or is only a very mild success, I see them focusing Windows Studios back on Windows.
As for Nintendo, they are in a similar boat. If the Switch fails, or is only a mild success, they are really going to rethink things. I think it will take them longer to act, no matter what they decide. They will either just go 3rd party or just straight mobile if they drop out of the console biz. Or they may decide to do a more traditional handheld. Of course, this time I think they'll really shoot for that $199 price point by focusing on normal controls, with maybe some simple tilt controls, as well as using standard mobile chips, just the more top of the line ones.
