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Faelco on 21 January 2017
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Wyrdness said:
Faelco said:

You need to produce it first. If they planned 2 millions sales, they won't be able to sell 4 millions. Maybe 3M if they planned some additionnal stocks...

Are you telling me you seriously think they'd only produce 2m units come March 3 and have nothing else because if so you're kidding yourself, companies normally produce additional stock they may very well already have 3-4m units in total come launch while shipping only 2m initially and the additional 2m for the launch window and following month. 

And when they say that they'll ship 2M for launch, even if the launch is successful, 2 more millions can't magically appear out of nowhere. It takes a lot of time for production and shipping. Production is carefully planned long before launch, and the shipping announcement depends on the production plan.

So, if they made a production plan for 2M at launch and then an average pace of production, they can't push 2 more millions just like that on short notice. You said that yourself: an initial shipment and then an already planned number for the launch window and the following months. Even if the console is a lot more successful than expected, they can't double or really speed up this plan. Your "2M for the launch window and the following month" will arrive as expected, during the launch window and the following month. It won't appear magically a few hours/days after launch on the step of every out-of-stock shop. Like someone else said, they still can ask to speed the production up now, but it will be too late if they want to react on launch day.

So your initial comment of "If they sell out day one another shipment will be sent that week" is still wrong, or at least exaggerated. The next shipment will be planned before that and won't really depend on the launch day success. If they sell out day one, there will be a shortage while they ship the second shipment more or less as already planned and prepare the third. These following shipments won't be that much faster or bigger than already planned. They won't be able to do all of this in a day because they saw that the console is sold out, you can't speed the process up at will. You can stop it if it doesn't sell, but it's really difficult to do the opposite. 

If they were able to do that, the NES mini launch wouldn't have been this awful.