Will the Nintendo Switch make it to 20 million?

[tak13]

Insidb said:

FloatingWaffles said:

The Nintendo Switch is both the new nintendo handheld and console.

The 3DS sold 61.6 million.
The Wii U sold 13.6 million.

Of the 3DS userbase, let's say only 25 million decide they want the next Nintendo handheld.
Of the Wii U userbase, let's say only 6 million decide they want the next Nintendo console.
And let's say of all of those that 10 million would have bought both the handheld and console seperately if it was the same situation as 3DS and Wii U, but now they just have to buy one single system since the Switch is both. 

That's already 41 million.

The Switch will have Pokemon, Yokai Watch, Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Mario, Zelda, etc, etc. All of which could get the Switch to and PAST 20 million just by themselves.

So yes, I imagine the Switch will easily surpass 20 million. 

Of that 61.6 million 3DS customer base, keep in mind that handheld sales are down 67%, gen-on-gen. 

That translates to the next-gen handheld (the NS and maybe something else) projecting to ~20 million and your 25 million in migrants becoming ~8 million.

When all is said and done, the 41 million ends up lookign more like 24 million.

Thank the rise of mobile gaming for that.

For you only 7th gen counts? What about 6th (GBA) and 4th+5th ( GB+GBC)

 

Based on 6th gen comparision, I surmise that what mobile has done to the market is to vanish the irregular and steep growth of 7th gen and maybe stolen some of the core audience ( at least  In the USA ) , not killing it...

Should I have predicted that Ps4 would sell 50-70m because ps3 was down compared to ps2 by 90%?

 

Also, after pokemon go effect, can we be more optimistic about nintendo handheld console market ( I'm specifying it, because essentially Nintendo is the handheld console market... ), please?